Are The Minions Donning Their Lifejackets And Preparing To Abandon The Trumptanic?

 

titanic-2The GOP has become seriously concerned about this election.  Sure, they have been concerned ever since Trump seemed to dominate the field over other Republican candidates a year ago.  And sure, they tried to find some way to circumvent his nomination.  But still, the party rallied around him, albeit in a lukewarm way, with significant numbers of GOP members refusing to endorse him, or better yet, publicly announcing they would vote for Clinton.  But now, the situation appears to be even more dire, and the Republican party may soon veer further from Trump in hopes of at least salvaging what they can of the down vote.

Trump’s erratic behavior last week after his poor performance in the first debate with Mrs. Clinton — repeatedly and viciously attacking a former beauty pageant winner over her weight, and making an issue of the Clintons’ marriage — has alarmed a number of Republican senators, including Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader. Mr. McConnell expressed concern that Mr. Trump might not have bottomed out yet and could lose even more support, especially among women. The GOP had hoped that Mr. Pence’s debate performance on Tuesday night would have a positive effect, but the reality is that while Mr. Pence may have been said to have “won” the debate by most media pundits, he failed miserably at explaining or defending Trump’s views and rhetoric.  At this point, I think it is only fair to say the Trump is his own worst enemy.

Which brings us to the down vote.  “Two weeks ago I would have said Republicans would hold control of the Senate, but there’s just so many seats up and nobody is getting separation,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster. 34 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs this year, as well as 12 governor seats.  It almost seems that the GOP has given up the hope of Trump actually winning, and is now preparing for what is called a “lose-close” strategy: holding Clinton to a narrow victory, and sparing other Republican candidates in the process. In the words of one Republican supporter from Illinois, “They want the guy to make a credible showing. They’re afraid that if Trump really screws up and looks bad, then down-ticket, there are going to be a lot more votes for Democrats.” Pretty much sums it up.

Republicans must decide in the next few days, rather than weeks, whether to seek distance from his wobbly campaign. Should Mr. Trump falter badly in his second debate with Hillary Clinton on Sunday, Republican congressional candidates may take it as a cue to flee openly from their nominee, said two senior Republicans involved at high levels of the campaign who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

titanic4Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose.  Two weeks ago, the two candidates were almost neck-and-neck, but as of today, Ms. Clinton leads in the RCP aggregate of polls by 3.9%.  Not a wide margin, but a step in the right direction (see graph at the start of this post). There are a number of reasons that polls are not necessarily reliable indicators.  In today’s environment, I believe that Trump supporters are the more enthusiastic and vociferous (read ‘noisily obnoxious’), while Clinton’s supporters are less likely to be heard, the ‘silent majority’, as it were. According to an article in The Washington Post (10/05/2016), private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop for Trump, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen strategists from both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the data was confidential. I think one could realistically add a few points to Clinton’s lead based on those who speak more softly.

For more than a year now, I have questioned why those who support Trump cannot see what sort of man he is, what type of leader he would be.  Is this latest trend simply another blip in the ever-changing landscape of the pollsters, or is it sustainable?  And the big question … does this mean that the lemmings are finally waking up to smell the coffee, or are the fence-sitters just finally deciding that Trump has committed one too many verbal atrocities?  Whatever the answer, let us hope it continues for the next 33 days!

5 thoughts on “Are The Minions Donning Their Lifejackets And Preparing To Abandon The Trumptanic?

  1. Jill, given the man’s history of exploiting people for money and self-promotion, he has had a career that does not qualify him to run for office. He truly cares only about one person as evidenced by his history and comments. His most strident base of voters are the very ones he has tended to screw over his entire career, contractors and employees. And, it continues to this day with an additional 100 plus lawsuits since he announced his candidacy.

    If I were still a Republican, I would leave the party. I left in 2006, when it was apparent that the truth mattered less to their leadership, in particular related to climate change denial. Your name is the most important thing you have as a resume, so would you want to throw it away supporting someone who represents narcissism and bigotry.

    With the 30 former GOP legislators who have come out in favor of Clinton this week, this hopefully will sway others. Pence has damaged an average reputation by lying on behalf of this man, saying he did not say things he obviously did. He has also given fodder for side by side commercials saying he did not say these things next to him saying them. Keith

    Liked by 1 person

    • Agreed. And I hear there was quite a fiasco while I was ‘off the grid’ this weekend! Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for Trump’s campaign, though I do NOT want to see him drop out, as some have suggested, because Pence might actually gain some ground.

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  2. Dear Jill,

    There are bound to be more Senator Kelly Ayotte moments. She supported him one day as a role model for her children and then she reversed herself, a day later. Some lemmings may not want to go down on a sinking ship to where they will jump off.

    As for me, I want a major loss for the republican ticket so that a clear message is sent that we are not a nation that supports the likes of DT nor the republican party enablers who created the environment where a DT could even be a contender for the most powerful job in the country. .
    We are only about a month away from election day, Gronda

    Liked by 1 person

    • Yes, I read about Ms. Ayotte’s statement and hasty retraction, and I merely shook my head. I have shaken the bloomin’ head so much in the past year that I believe I have rattled something loose! I am with you on hoping for an overwhelming loss for DT, however I think the GOP has heard the message loud and clear and am betting a trumpeter will not be their nominee again … at least not in the forseeable future! Hugs, Gronda … we all need one right about now!

      Liked by 1 person

  3. The lemmings seem determined to follow Trump wherever he leads — and yes, they do appear much more enthusiastic than the Clinton supporters, according to polls I have read. But the fence-sitters do seem to be moving sloth-like from their perch and coming down on Clinton’s side. Let’s hope they actually go to the polls and vote — and that the voting is relatively free from shenanigans.

    Liked by 1 person

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