Blue Wave Fading to Aqua?

As a non-republican … an independent voter who, at this point is leaning heavily toward the democratic platform … I have been buoyed by the confidence of many in the “blue wave” that many see as sweeping the mid-terms.  At first, I was skeptical, thinking we were perhaps becoming cocky, over-confident, and that there were yet many hurdles to be either knocked down or jumped over.  But, I eventually became a bit more optimistic and felt certain the democrats will take over at least one of the chambers of Congress in November.  Turns out, my skepticism was justified.  According to a piece in The Washington Post yesterday …

“With the Republicans’ House majority at risk, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43 percent favor the Republican. That four-point margin compares with a 12-point advantage Democrats held in January.”  — 16 April 2018

Where did the other 8% go???  I wrack my brain, such as it is, trying to think why this should be the case.   The republican candidates in a number of races are notably bad candidates with sometimes outrageous views and histories.  Surely there hasn’t been any bright shining light from our current Congress, nor from the executive branch that would have driven a push to the right.  So … WHY???

According to the analysis in the Post article, one reason is that Trump’s approval rating is hovering at right around 40%, as compared to 36% in January.  Let us make note here that 40% is not a great approval rating by any standards, but it would seem that Trump set himself such a low bar to begin with that 40% now inspires the masses … somehow.

One issue that is almost certain to play largely into the equation in November is that of gun regulation.  In the wake of the February 14 Parkland Florida mass school shooting, young people have taken the proverbial bull by the horns and made their voices heard around the nation.  They want something done … now … before more of their friends die such a tragic death.  And they are a force, for certain.  But … before we become too cocky over that one, remember that there is also a push-back factor among those who see their right to own guns … any and all guns … as sacred.  From the Post article …

“… three-quarters of voters who prioritize enacting new gun laws support Democrats for Congress, while 8 in 10 of those who give protecting gun rights greater significance support Republicans.”

So yes, more people, especially those who will be eligible to vote for the first time in their lives, will turn out to vote and will likely vote for a candidate who supports stricter gun laws.  But at the same time, more people who might have let a mid-term election pass them by, will turn out to ‘protect’ their 2nd Amendment ‘right’.

It is the way of political campaigns to find a chink in the armour of the ‘enemy’ and blow it into a full-size chasm.  The democratic party is not without its Achilles heels, one of which is Minority House Leader, Nancy Pelosi.

“Pelosi has a negative image, with 32 percent of Americans holding a favorable view of her, and 44 percent unfavorable. Among Republicans, she is well-known and widely disliked, with 74 percent holding unfavorable views of her, 63 percent strongly.”

CNN Politics has referred to Pelosi as ‘the Republicans’ secret weapon in 2018’.

As I noted in my three-part project last week, one of the biggest hurdles we face in November is getting people to the polls.  I firmly believe that if we could get 85% of eligible voters to actually vote, the Democrats would sweep the mid-terms, but that is unlikely.  Still, it behooves us all to work toward getting more people to vote, getting more people interested, reminding them what is at stake.  We also face hurdles of gerrymandering, and while I applaud the Pennsylvania Supreme Court for their firm stance on re-districting, I don’t see other states following suit as I had hoped they would.

The Republicans are poised to play a dirty game of pool, and they are likely to continue to have the help of their friends, the Russians.  Although it has been proven that the Russians did, in fact, interfere in several ways in the fairness of our democratic processes in 2016, the Trump regime has declined to take aggressive steps to avoid such interference this year.  The Democratic Party must proactively counter the falsehoods and mud-slinging that is sure to start in earnest any day now, but it must do so without lowering itself to those standards.  We must show the public the face of integrity, the face of values, ethics, compassion and intellect.  Rather than engage in a mud-fest, we must prove why our candidate is the better one for the job.

So, why are the Democrats losing ground in the polls?  Why is the ‘blue wave’ fading to aqua?  I don’t have the answer, but we need to be finding it … SOON!  There are 203 days left until election day.

The November mid-terms are too important for us to sit back and assume that anti-Trump sentiments will carry the Democratic candidates into a majority position in the House and/or Senate. It is said by many that Trump, himself, will doom the Republican candidates in November, and it is a comforting, appealing idea, but … it would be a mistake to become overly-confident.  Remember 2016?  We were so sure that a ‘man’ with no experience, no knowledge, and a big, loud, obnoxious mouth could never be elected to the most revered office in the land.  Well, guess what, folks?

34 thoughts on “Blue Wave Fading to Aqua?

  1. Politics in democracies. Most folk have a tendency to be conservative with a small ‘c’, thus The Right doesn’t have to do a lot really except watch for The Left/Liberal to say something they can work with. The Left/Liberal being a home for liberal and radically progressive folk can produce statements which unsettle the majority of folk, and a significant few then either drift to the Right or get fuddled and vote for independents and the parties on The Right pounce. This has happened in USA, Britain & Germany. Sometimes in certain economic conditions if the Left/Liberal produces a Charismatic character and the Right is all played out the opposite happens. But it is usually an uphill struggle for the Left/Liberal, who also have a tendency to snatch Defeat out of the Jaws of Victory either through complacency or in-fighting.
    This is made more difficult for the Democrats are expectations have been raised so high anything other than a big victory will seem a moral victory of the Republicans, who can play the ‘Party in Govt always expects to lose a bit of ground mid-term’ card.
    For the USA the best bet for the Democrats is:
    1. Vote registration.
    2. Get the vote out.
    3. Paradoxically don’t make Trump the issue, make him seem unimportant.
    4. Close ranks and get every disciplined, no in-fighting. Tell the very radical loud wing to be quiet otherwise they are only helping Trump & Co. The important thing is to get that big majority.
    5. Go local, not national. It’s mid-terms.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Whew. Roger … I have just read your comment for the third time, and I must say that for a Welshman, you understand our landscape, our dilemma, better than 95% of the population of the U.S. understand it. You have stated it better than I ever could. And you are 100% spot on. Numbers 3 & 4, I suspect, will be the hardest, for Trump is such an ‘in-your-face’, uber-obnoxious creature that he dominates … everything. He insists that every world event is about HIM. He has, I think, a God-complex, and the media have yet to disabuse him of this notion. And We The People do love a good soap opera, y’know! And #4 will be difficult simply because divisiveness is the ‘word of the day’, even within like-thinking factions. Not for the first time, I find myself wishing we had a Roger L over here running for office …

      Liked by 2 people

      • Thanks Jill.
        It’s all based on the experiences of UK politics down the years; the principals are still the same.
        Divisiveness and the ‘Loud In Your Face’ factions are your biggest danger.
        For instance, there is one old-time hard Left socialist over here who has turned his back on Labour just for these reasons and currently thinks they are as much a menace to the well-being of the WHOLE nation, and ‘unfashionable’ suffering peoples as the current Government is.
        To adapt Tolkien’s speech of Galadriel ‘I shall go to The Writing and Flourish’.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Much as I try to feel positive about the upcoming elections, about people in the U.S. pulling together to try to make some changes, in truth I feel very afraid that we are going to destroy ourselves with bickering, while behind the curtain, there is a man pulling levers, pushing buttons and changing the world without our notice. I’m going to have to read Lord of the Rings!!! Herb has been nattering at me for a year to read the series and watch the movies. I did read The Hobbit and liked that fine …

          Liked by 2 people

          • I don’t think there is anyone behind a curtain Jill, I think we have rule by Three Stooge-ocracy; similar to the current state in the UK.
            Watch out for Lord of The Rings, it’s long, long, long and folk keep on bursting into poetry for pages and I’m muttering ‘Get on with it!’….. I preferred the BBC dramatisation of umpteen years ago.

            Liked by 2 people

            • Three Stooge-ocracy … I like that!!! I found a word the other day that also applies … kakistocracy: a system of government which is run by the worst, least qualified, or most unscrupulous citizens. Spot on, don’t you think?

              I likely won’t get to Lord of the Rings anytime soon, for my reading list is already long, but I would like to read it one of these days. Poetry, eh? My eyes will just glaze over anyway, then, for I am truly challenged when it comes to understanding even the simplest of poems. I don’t know what it is … but I just never understand it. Otherwise, I am reasonably literate. 😀

              Liked by 2 people

  2. I’ve been around long enough to know that most political predictions are bunk. Especially 203 days out. Voters have terrible long-term memory and will be voting mainly on the basis of what’s going on next fall. Sad but true. So if Trump gets a deal with North Korea, the stock market is still up, and Justice Stevens is still talking about repealing the 2nd amendment, we’re in deep doo doo.

    Things are looking pretty good in my red district though. A young woman Dem. is building momentum against the Trumpist Republican who’s been in the seat for several years, and she’s running circles around him on the fundraising front. Unfortunately there are at least three other Dems in the primary race, and the vote could well be split. Because of California election law, we could see two Republicans on the November ballot!

    It’s gonna be a rough ride, is what I’m saying. 😉

    Liked by 4 people

    • Agreed that polls this far out are mostly useless. But the trend disturbs me. However, the other thing that disturbs me, as I was just telling Keith, is that I suspect Trump & Co will have a plan up their sleeve to spring a last-minute surprise a few days before the elections. Paranoid? Perhaps, but perhaps with good cause? Trump isn’t the brightest bulb in the pack, but he is devious enough to realize that if that ‘blue wave’ actually comes to pass, and democrats gain control of one or both chambers, he and his presidency are doomed. And we all know he doesn’t count integrity or honesty among his values. So ….

      Who is the young woman democrat you refer to? Way to go, and hopefully the other two won’t dilute the vote too much.

      Yes, my friend, it is going to be a long, rough 7 months, and I just hope there is payoff at the end of the day!

      Liked by 2 people

  3. Jill, too much can happen between now and then. Dems need to keep doing what they are doing fielding good candidates in every race, even ones that looked attainable two years ago. And, let these candidates run their race.

    I have said this before, but the Dems need to promote a new minority leader in the House. Pelosi’s name is used as a weapon against Dems in every race, just as Hillary Clinton’s name was. To me this reveals a dearth of confidence in their ideas. The issue that will sell is stabilizing the ACA and making people aware of the significant efforts by the GOP to sabatoge this imperfect law. Keith

    Liked by 4 people

    • Agreed … polls this far out are pretty much meaningless, but the trend concerns me. And, another thing that concerns me, in addition to all the obvious, is that the GOP and/or Donald Trump will have a last-minute surprise up their sleeve, such as Comey’s announcement in 2016, just days before the election. It is always the most recent news that sticks in people’s minds, and … well, I just don’t trust that bunch of hoodlums in the White House. But you are right … the best thing we can do is work toward putting forth good, credible candidates. Yes, I think Pelosi is sharp, but she is toxic now. Gonna be a looooooong 7 months.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. I think you answered your own question: “So, why are the Democrats losing ground in the polls? Why is the ‘blue wave’ fading to aqua?” Answer? Trump’s popularity rise coupled with the mindless attachment of so many inthis country to an amendment that they think gives them a God-given right to shoot others.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Yep, that pretty well sums it up, but … but … not really. WHY? That is still a burning question. Okay, Trump’s popularity is holding at about 40%, but WHY? What’s to like? He has destroyed every darn thing he has even looked at! What is to like? That he’s white??? That he likes white more than black? He is ignorant. He is crass. He has annoyed the heck out of our allies. He has decimated ACA. He … is a bloomin’ train wreck! Why does he even still have a base? Why hasn’t somebody assassinated him? Just … why? 😥

      Liked by 2 people

      • I suspect his popularity is based on the fact that many perceive him as being just like them. His recent problems sound like a page out of the Enquirer — a very popular literary masterpiece, I gather. Bear in mind how small are the worlds in which so many people live.

        Liked by 3 people

        • Sigh. Yes, I know you are right, and I strongly suspect those people will raise their children to live in those same small worlds, thus the core problem will never go away. It is frustrating. I only hope there are more people living in the larger world of reality, of humanity, than live in their own narrow worlds. Some days I’m not so sure.

          Liked by 1 person

  5. Not buying any of it. The same people spewing nonsense about a blue wave are the same people who up until hours before the Associated Press called the 2016 Presidential election told us that Hillary Clinton had the election in the bag.

    I recall telling family members and friends that as much as they want it (a Clinton victory), it was not happening and that the people are being lied to.

    Like it or not, we are being spoon-fed b.s. from the same entities that lied to us for two years. Then there is the tax cuts which Nancy Pelosi is committed to not just reversing but raising the taxes of “every American.” Her words, not mine.

    The left has no platform except to resist and to impeach. That horse has been beat to death and people who have bills to pay and mouths to feed don’t want to hear that.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Actually, I admit that until about 1:00 a.m. on 09 November 2016, I DID believe Hillary would win, for I found it unfathomable that anybody in their right mind would vote for Donald Trump, let alone a majority. Well, a majority did NOT vote for him, but enough did that he now sits in the Oval Office. I’m not sure what you’re ‘not buying’, for I wasn’t selling anything. I merely offer honest opinions and you are free to agree or disagree.

      As to the tax ‘cuts’ … first, they are cuts only if you are among the wealthy, but for the average John Doe who may see an extra $20 on his weekly pay, it will come back to bite him at the end of the year when he is filing his 1040. And, of course, the other thing is that the U.S. could not afford to reduce its revenue with these tax cuts for the wealthy, for we are already operating on debt and an ever-increasing deficit. Deficit spending can only last just so long before it comes crashing down.

      The ‘left’ actually has a very well-formed platform that includes healthcare, education, gun regulation, racial equality, gender equality, and much more. Why is impeachment part of the platform? Because the current administration is the single most corrupt in the history of this nation, and as long as they are occupying the White House, there is no chance to see legislation passed that benefits the people … the ordinary people … of this nation.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Jill, polls this far in advance are less utile. Also, reporters and candidates tend to focus on the median expectation of a poll forecast and not the range of occurrences with standard deviations. Before the Comey announcement, the right leaning standard deviation had Clinton winning. Once the Comey announcement was made the right leaning standard deviation leaned for a possible Trump victory, with the median still supporting a Clinton victory. When turnout suffered in certain states due to a lack of enthusiasm, this led to a Trump victory.

        As we have discussed before. Clinton ran a poor campaign. She tried to run up the score going to Arizona and did not even visit Wisconsin and Michigan after the convention and going to PA late.

        Even with all of this and the Russian involvement, she would have won if Comey had not made his late announcement. Even Trump was surprised as he had done zero prep work to transition. Keith

        Liked by 2 people

        • It is true that polls this far out are mostly useless. It is the trend that disturbs me at the moment. And speaking of the 2016 Comey announcement, just days before the election … I well remember waking that morning, checking the news on my cell phone, seeing that and feeling my stomach drop. I believe I said aloud, to my empty bedroom, “Shit … that’s it … it’s over.” And now, heading into the midterms, I fear that Trump & Co. will have just another such trick up their sleeves to use if they feel it is necessary. You know he isn’t going to lose his majority in Congress if he can help it, for it is the very thing that is keeping him where he is. Without that majority in Congress, he would likely be gone already. I’m just concerned that democrats are riding on some wave of confidence that is built on a foundation of air. Sigh.

          Liked by 1 person

  6. Focusing on Trump’s faults is not a winning strategy. Look at what has worked for the special election seats the Democrats have flipped so far. Each one has focused on local issues and how they’ll solve them. Yes, some of the races became national, much to the chagrin of the candidates (namely Doug Jones and Conor Lamb), but they both stood strong for their community, and made them the focus of their campaigns. Don’t worry about polls going up and down, that Pelosi is there (secret weapon–please, the GOP has used her for YEARS, although not to great effect recently), or Democratic in-fighting (blown up for media stories). Focus on registering voters, and getting them to the polls. Democratic turnout at midterms is atrocious and the one thing that does scare me going into November. (This is how bad it’s been: https://politicalcharge.org/2018/04/04/the-midterm-turnout-problem-democrats-need-to-fix/)

    Liked by 3 people

    • Quite so. Getting voters to actually vote is the largest hurdle, for certain, and perhaps the only one that the average citizen can actually do anything about. But the other issues, particularly gerrymandering and the expected Russian hacking, are serious as well. However, I think that if we can get people voting, especially the minorities who feel they aren’t heard anyway, we have a better than even change of gaining at least one chamber of Congress.

      Liked by 2 people

  7. All your points are important, but for me, the last one is the most important one we must understand. I felt that tRump’s faults would keep him from winning the presidency. Instead his very faults were what the deplorables loved the most about him. The public infighting of the left fueled on by Russian bots on social media caused the left to work against their own self interest and instead of voting together to pull us over the finish line, we fractured, voting for any protest or in your face vote we could manage. We need to be very careful in how we do this election. Winning the congress should be our agenda to save our nation. Hugs

    Liked by 4 people

    • Dear Scottie and Jill,

      Your statement reflected my deepest fear that Dems will fight among themselves where we end up being like the republicans, losers.

      Right now we are fighting to save our democracy and the very soul of this nation. There can be no clearer goal than to win back the majority position in both chambers of the US Congress. I pray the we paddle together with all of our differences towards this goal of winning this battle to save out democracy, “rule of law,” truth, decency, compassion etc.

      Hugs, Gronda

      Liked by 4 people

      • I am 100% with you on this one, Gronda. We must pull together, for soooo much is riding on the midterms. Our very system of government, our alliances, even the Mueller investigation all ride on what happens in November. Time for us to put all differences to the side and get busy! Hugs!!!

        Liked by 2 people

    • You are so right. We were cocky, we took far too much for granted, and we sat back, relaxing, when we should have been out there pounding the pavement or else the keyboards, trying to make people wake up and go to the polls, trying to make them listen. I was as guilty as any … all the way up until about 1:00 a.m. on November 9th, I kept saying “never happen”. Well, it did. I won’t make that mistake again. Your point is apt … we need to get our act together, the DNC needs to get its act together, we need strong, baggage-free candidates, solid platforms, and most of all, cohesion. And We The People need to get off our butts and get out there and vote, dragging friends and neighbors along!!! Sigh. Hugs, dear Scottie!

      Liked by 3 people

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