Who Knows What Tomorrow Brings?

The stock market is more fragile than a newborn baby or a piece of fine china.  A word, a look can cause market fluctuations, sending analysts to their desks to … well, analyze.  The most recent example is the roller coaster ride the market took this week (and it’s only Wednesday, folks).  Volatility is the buzz word of the week on Wall Street.

Last weekend, during his trip to participate in the G20 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Trump announced that he and China’s President Xi Jinping had reached an agreement of sorts.  My own thoughts were that it wasn’t anything more than smoke and mirrors, Trump’s attempt to make it appear as if he had at least done something to justify the cost of himself, his wife, daughter, and son-in-law travelling all that distance on our dime.  The agreement seemed to be a non-agreement, for the only thing they actually agreed to was to try to come to some agreement on trade and tariffs within the following 90-day period.  Big deal.  Whoopee.  They could have done that without announcing that they agreed to do it.  Oh yeah, and Trump also said he told Xi that he wouldn’t add any new or additional tariffs on China during the 90 days.  No doubt that had Xi wiping the sweat off his brow.

Some people are apparently not as cynical about these things as I am, for they took great joy in calling their brokers and saying, “BUY, BUY, BUY!!!”  And thus, the stock market climbed on Monday, enough to wipe out the losses of the previous few weeks … losses that had wiped out the gains from the entire year.

But then, Trump appeared to waffle about the “agreement” with a Tuesday morning tweet …Trump tariff manAnd those same people who called their brokers on Monday, placed yet another call saying, “SELL, SELL, SELL!!!”  And thus was born an all new level of volatility in the S&P, the Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, with two-day losses thus far, more than wiping out Monday’s gains and then some.  You know those playground things, basically a board on a fulcrum that are called teeter-totters, or see-saws?  They go up-down-up-down …teeter-totterThat is what the U.S. economy is on.  Market fluctuations based on anticipation of economic or political events are not unusual.  However, rarely are they as significant and immediate based on naught more than a word or a tweet from a madman!  If … IF Donald Trump were a mentally and emotionally stable leader, one might understand why such a remark would set the wheels in motion for a market tumble.  But, given his rarely-coherent state of mind, his lies and reversals, I cannot imagine why anybody would base financial decisions on one of his multitude of daily tweets.

The internet is having great fun with Trump’s new nickname, Tariff Man …Tariff Mantweet-1

tweet-2tweet-3Once again, Trump has made himself, and by extension all of us, a laughingstock.  But it goes deeper than that.  He is playing a game, the rules of which he is ignorant.  And the stakes, for the average person like you and I, are our 401(k)s, our pensions and retirement plans.  On an even larger scale, he is playing with the economic well-being of not only the U.S., but global economies as well.

Our nation is going through enough turbulence at the moment without the person who should be reliable and steadfast creating so much chaos that the major indicator of our economy is swinging on a pendulum.  I am reminded of a line from a song, Up Where We Belong by Joe Cocker and Jennifer Warnes:  Who knows what tomorrow brings?

26 thoughts on “Who Knows What Tomorrow Brings?

  1. Dear Jill,

    This is for real. This is the first time (December 2018) that the U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted in 10 years. In the past, every time the yield curve (as measured by the difference between one and ten-year Treasury yields) turned down between 1955 and 2018, a recession happened within two years.

    As per a Money Week report, “In fact, “every US recession in the past 60 years was preceded by… an inverted yield curve,” note Michael D Bauer and Thomas M Mertens of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in a paper on the topic.”

    We can’t afford this tariff shenanigans by President Trump.

    Hugs, Gronda

    Liked by 1 person

    • I have no doubt whatsoever that these tariffs are going to lead us into a recession, plus we have the added disadvantage that they are offending our allies, our friends. It is only a matter of time, and the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of those who put this fool into the Oval Office and those in Congress who have given him free rein. Between that and what he’s doing to our environment, the world cannot afford Donald Trump. Sigh.
      Hugs!

      Liked by 1 person

  2. A lady dropped her credit cards a few days ago at the bank.
    I told her that I would help her pick them up but I had no more nails.
    The world leaders are driving me bunkers as they head head on with each other and my nails are suffering… as they get what they want for their friends no dough the people will suffer greatly.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Pingback: ♫ Up Where We Belong ♫ | Filosofa's Word

  4. As a Canadian, I’d love to see the Canadian government refuse to ratify the “Free Trade” deal until Trump removes the tariffs against Canadian steel and aluminum. It looks like we are stuck with them as long as Trump sits in the Oval Office.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I fully agree! The tariffs are hurting both you guys and us, although Trump is too stupid to understand that. And his excuse of “national security” was not only ignorant, but offensive. I still seethe over that one!

      Liked by 1 person

        • He is a moron who seems to be hell-bent and determined to bring this nation into the third world. Sigh. Frankly, I wouldn’t work for him in any capacity, but chief of staff is one of the toughest jobs in any administration. I’m surprised John Kelly held out as long as he did. My concern is that it appears Mark Meadows may be the next in line for the job, and I cannot think of a worse choice … well, I probably could, but it would be a stretch. Meadows is the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, the most radical right group in Congress. Sigh. Just what we need, eh?

          Liked by 1 person

            • From what’s being reported this evening, he very much wanted it, but Trump wants him to stay in Congress, to be his staunch supporter in the House, and no doubt to be his “eyes and ears” in the House. Santorum has also turned it down. I’m banking on Chris Christie, who has no pride left and is like a lap puppy begging for just a little pet, or a scrap. 😀 Never having heard of Cyrus Beene, I Googled … sounds like he would fit right into this circus!

              Liked by 1 person

  5. DT was born into a real-estate family Empire. Building and selling or renting properties is relatively simple and linear in the world of business. Get your sums right, and there is a lot of money to be made. Trump however, does not have a good record on getting the sums right.

    Step outside of the linear world into the complex, 3D network of politics, diplomacy, contractual responsibility and binding agreements, etc., and one needs more than the ability to do some simple arithmetic.

    DT does not have that ability. He is largely uneducated in world affairs, doesn’t read, doesn’t learn. He is unaware that news of uncertainty (at what he or another world leader might do or implement) makes global markets very edgy. The market becomes a gamble rather than predictable and sell orders come in from all corners of the globe for people who want to wait out ‘the uncertainty period’ and reinvest when outcomes are predictable.

    DT is not exerting American Power, he is showing the world destabilizing actions that have every intelligent person on the planet shaking their head in disbelief.

    It is no wonder that technological innovators are going to Asia. Trump is trying to put America back into the 1960’s. The rest of us are moving rapidly into a new age.

    Like

  6. It appears that trying to unravel Trump’s thinking, or the lack of it, is beyond far better minds than my own. I will defer to something that Benjamin said to me yesterday, albeit not concerning the weighty topic of tariffs. “Today is the tomorrow from yesterday, right Gem?” Thank-you!

    Like

  7. This is from the creature who has made it a habit not to paying his bills, avoiding taxes and when all else fails file for bankruptcy….oh yes and cheating on suppliers…..(and dodging the draft, thus not serving his nation)
    Newsflash bozo……Countries that do that get treated roughly by other countries.
    Lock him up!

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Jill, as a financial person, you know that CFOs value predictability. It is not uncommon for a CFO to select a supplier with a higher, but guaranteed cost over the longest period of time possible.

    The state of flux that the current US President has imposed on already tempestuous markets has caused more than a little upset. Since this President does not appreciate the execution and ongoing maintenance of initiatives, he believes things can turn on a dime. What is unsettling is buyers and sellers have to make decisions about products and supplies that will assure their are markets. This is even more true with perishable goods like farm harvests. So, when the President abruptly backs off then a week later pushes forward a change, these CFOs and their colleagues have already made decisions. One decision I believe they have reached is to not trust the President. Keith

    Like

    • PS – To emphasize this point, per Reuters here is what JP Morgan Chase is telling its clients in writing:
      “It doesn’t seem like anything was actually agreed to at the dinner,” JPMorgan wrote in a note to clients later that day, adding that Trump’s tweets ‘seem if not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated.'”

      Like

I would like to hear your opinion, so please comment if you feel so inclined.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s