Election 2020 … Part First of Many To Come

I have lost count of how many times I’ve heard people say that the democrats will win big in 2020, that Trump doesn’t stand a chance, that the democrats have a bunch of good candidates, that the nation will not re-elect Donald Trump, etc., etc.  And I know those people saying this mean well, and in most cases, I think they believe it.  But folks … make no mistake … it will be an uphill battle, and we haven’t yet taken the first step up that hill.  In this post, I want to talk just a bit about what is wrong with the democratic stance and what some of the problems facing the democrats are going to be.  I speak at the moment only of the presidential election, though I will later talk about the Senate and at some point, the House.

First problem … yes, we have a number of highly qualified candidates, from the elders, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, to the newbies like Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.  But that is exactly the problem.  Let me explain …

In 2016, when Bernie Sanders failed to be nominated by the Democratic Party, what did his most loyal supporters do?  Some voted for independent candidates, some even voted for Trump, but the majority simply did not vote.  If every Bernie supporter had cast their vote for Hillary Clinton, we would not have Trump in the Oval Office today.  So, next year, at the Democratic Convention, if Kamala Harris is the nominee, what will Buttigieg’s and Warren’s supporters do?  Some will vote for Ms. Harris, but more will likely either vote for an independent simply to show their anger with the Democratic Party or will simply stay home and not vote at all.  Some will even vote for Trump.  This is a big problem, folks, and while it makes no sense, it is reality.

Second problem … this election will not be, for the Democratic Party, about who is the most qualified and capable candidate, but will be only about who can beat Donald Trump.  Which translates to:  who has the most public appeal, who is the best-looking, who can win what will be naught more than a popularity contest.  Oh yes, I hear you saying that we all care about the issues, and I agree … those reading this post no doubt care more about the candidate’s stance on such things as climate change, health care, taxes, foreign policy, gun regulation, Social Security, etc.  But we, my friends, are not the majority.  The majority do not vote with their heads, do not study the candidates and issues, but rather vote with their hearts.  Why do you think Hillary failed to attain a larger margin in 2016? (I remind you that she did win the election by nearly 3 million votes)  Because she was not warm & fuzzy, was not a ‘likeable’ persona.  And the two straws that broke the camel’s back were her calling republicans ‘deplorables’, and Jim Comey’s “October Surprise”.

Third problem … nobody seems to be doing a damned thing about the fact that Russia did, in fact, influence our 2016 election and, while we will never know for certain if Hillary would have won the electoral college without the Russian influence, we can surmise that would have been the case.  This should be something that Congress is demanding be addressed by our intelligence community, and perhaps it is being addressed, but it doesn’t seem to be taken very seriously at all.

Fourth problem … voter disenfranchisement and gerrymandering.  Most of Trump’s base are white, middle-income, Christian, non-college-educated voters.  They have driver’s licenses, they own cars, and they live in predominantly white, middle class neighborhoods with a polling place only a short distance.  A large number of likely democratic voters are poor, are minorities, and live in neighborhoods where there are no polling places close by.  They may not have driver’s licenses, they may not own reliable vehicles.  They work at minimum wage jobs and by the time they get off work, take a bus to the closest polling place, it has closed, or the line is so long that they cannot wait in line to vote, for they must pick their child up at daycare.  States are, even today, trying to pass stricter voting laws.  In Texas, proposed legislation would force anyone taking more than 3 non-family-members to the polls to fill out a form listing the people being transported and the reason.  In many states around the nation, voter ID laws are being introduced.  Polling places on college campuses are being dismantled.  And I haven’t seen much being done in the way of re-districting gerrymandered districts.  These are all blatant attempts to discourage poor and minority voters, to make it harder for them to vote, and to ensure their votes are diluted when they can vote.

Fifth problem … voter apathy.  We are so bombarded every day with news of corruption on both sides of the aisle that some people … I have had people tell me this … just throw up their hands and say, essentially, “To heck with it … they are all corrupt, so why bother?”  As heated as the 2016 election was, do you know what percentage of eligible voters didn’t bother to vote?  Take a guess.  Almost 40%!!!  Colorado, Minnesota, Maine & New Hampshire were the only states where 70% or more of eligible voters turned out to vote.

I don’t mean to be a wet blanket, but the real danger, as I see it, is in being too complacent, in believing that because Trump is such a terrible president, he cannot possibly win.  He was an awful candidate, but he won in 2016, largely because of Russian interference, Hillary’s unpopularity, voter apathy, and voter disenfranchisement.  The Democratic Party needs to seriously get their act together, unite behind the best qualified candidate, and put together a winning platform that includes health care solutions, environmental stewardship, civil rights reform, gun reform, and a host of other solutions to the issues that are plaguing this nation today, such as dealing with Iran, North Korea and Russia, not to mention mending fences that Trump has torn down with our allies.

Let us not make the same mistake we made in 2016, thinking that Trump is such a buffoon he cannot possibly win.  He is a buffoon, he is a madman, but … he won in 2016.  Let us not let him win in 2020.

30 thoughts on “Election 2020 … Part First of Many To Come

  1. As I’ve suggested before, we have to approach this upcoming election on multiple fronts emphasizing winnable stands on key issues, lawful investigations, and a steady dose of anti-Trump character opinions.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Jill I would have to respectfully disagree with you, Dems have this election in the bag…. so long as we all do our part. Everything that Trump has done, all the corruption and lies have been exposed! And as Gronda so wisely point out, conservative Trump supporters are the minority. Most want progressive policies on both sides of the aisle.
    Also Russian interference has also been exposed quite extensively by the FBI. Who in their right mind would be influenced by Facebook and Twitter ads these days??? They’re all fake Russian bots! I try to give ppl credit for their intelligence, hopefully ppl are doing independent research and not rely on wacky opinions from social media, that would be silly.
    Gerrymandering is still an issue, hopefully that would be remedied by 2020! I feel optimistic and cheerful about the upcoming Democratic landslide, as more ppl would commit the closer we get to election. This is going to be fun!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Hello 1EarthUnited. I like your optimism. Do you really think most people in the general public will take the time to fact check what they read or get emailed? Most are scrambling for time each day to just get their stuff done and enjoy a few posts. I have people comment on my blog that make assertions that when I check are not correct. I think people are easily swayed. I think the media and constant drum beat of incorrect information tends to stick in peoples minds instead of facts. That is why Barr wanted to use that false statement and all that time he did not need redacting the report to get his narrative out and drum it into the viewer that tRump was not guilty of anything. We know the deplorables and State TV are going to be even more forceful in defending and promoting tRump. That means the many people not in the coastal cities are going to be getting flooded with misleading information from many sources. Plus they may have family members who hammer away at them to vote “correctly”. So I think it pays for the Democrats to keep investigating while talking about how much they want to do to help the people and how it is being blocked by the Republican senate and using every thing in our tool box to get out the votes and to energize the public. Remember the deplorables are energized and they see this as more critical than they saw 2016, the rest of the nation needs to feel the same. The idea that this will be an easy win is not supported by polling. Hugs

      Liked by 2 people

      • Hi Scottie, you bring up very good points. Mu opinion is judging from the 2016 fiasco, and subsequently Trump’s horrible performance as a President, the public should be woke enough to see the big picture…. we can’t afford another 4 years of corruption, bigotry and pandering to big business/ crony capitalists.
        Now more than ever we can’t afford to lose hope, give up and do nothing. At some point we need to come together as a nation, put aside partisan politics and vote this dangerous man out!
        I feel it is necessary to allow ppl with opposite political views to make up their own minds with reason, not name calling rhetoric or judgment. By calling half the country deplorables, Hillary helped galvanize the right to defeat herself.
        That was a huge miscalculation on her part, historically the Democratic Party was about inclusion, unity and fighting on behalf of citizens. Over the years DP have lost it’s way and became pro-establishment just like the other party.
        That’s the real reason ppl stopped voting or caring, b/c ALL politicians only cared about their own self serving interests. Ppl are not stupid, most know exactly what’s going on in this country and have become disillusioned and apathetic, most feel powerless against the gov’t machine. No matter what party is in office, the results are the same, year after year. We had gun deaths, mass shootings, police beatings, war, corruption under Obama as well. Sadly the system has always been fixed against the citizen and for powerful corporations, wealthy and special interests
        So ur right, it will not be an easy win, we need to wake up as many fellow Americans ON BOTH SIDES, try to contain emotions and stick with the issues, make everyone see reason, do the right thing once more and make this country whole!
        So YES, I feel optimistic that ALL OF US can win, if we all do the right thing! The biggest obstacle facing the Democratic party is itself, trying to stifle progressive candidates trying to make a difference. Yes I’m talking about Bernie Sanders, you see Bernie represents everything that the establishment can’t tolerate – establishment means business as usual, BS promises that would never materialize under a 2 party system. The DNC would never allow anyone like Mr Sanders or Ms Gabbard to win the primaries, that is against their political and monetary interests. I believe the DNC would rather see Trump win again rather than elect a candidate who would affect real change… which would disrupt their cushy positions and stop the gravy train! This is what we’re really fighting for, a change in the system itself, not meaningless infighting between each other. The establishment knows all too well: divide and conquer is a very effective strategy, polarize the nation politically so everyone will miss the real scam right from under our nose!
        Watch Jimmy Dore, Kim Iverson, The humanist report, Nico House, Secular Talk on Youtube. Noam Chomsky has brilliant assessment of US politics and state of the world. Watch Chomsky BRILLIANTLY Dissects Trump, Democrats & RussiaGate.
        Cheers! 🙂

        Like

  3. Great post, I could not agree more. While it really should be a D slam dunk there is zero reason to assume so. We must be vigilant, we must vote, we must CARE enough to do so. Our democracy is under attack people. Get out and vote!

    Liked by 2 people

    • Thanks! Yes, many things are outside our control, but we do have power in our vote. It is amazing the excuses people will come up with for not voting, but the absolute worst I have heard was one young woman after the 2016 election who said she was “expressing herself” by not voting! Aaaaarrrrgggghhhh!

      Liked by 1 person

  4. One of the problems with talking about a Blue Wave is letting voters think the game is complete before they even decide to vote or not. Thdy won’t feel their vote is needed.
    The same with if voters beluve all is already lost, and the Republicans are sure winners, as El Trumpo is forecasting to anyone who will listen. What’s the use of voting if one side cannot lose.
    The Dems need to tell their electorate every vote is important, and needed. Make them feel important as people, not just cogs on a wheel. HELP YOUR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE GET A CHANCE TO HELP YOU! Keep the message positive. Keep it individual. Keep it clear.
    IF YOU WANT US, WE NEED YOU!

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Hello Jill. About problem number one an attempt to deal with it is on the table. Every candidate has signed on to a pledge to do everything they can to support the nominee and work to get that person elected. Even Bernie made a point of signing it. I think things are different on that front compared to 2016. Most of the attempt to format discontent and divisions in comment sections I have been reading are done by bots and trolls, not real voters.

    One thing I would remind everyone. We have to inspire the people to come out to vote, not expect them to do it as a duty. One of the greatest problem with Hillary was she did not inspire anyone, was center , and promised more of the same. It was a continuation of Obama policies basically. As you say she was not warm and fuzzy. The midterm elections swung wildly Democratic because the candidates talked about things like changing healthcare, changing reliance on fossil fuels, protecting the environment, higher wages, and hold tRump to oversight. These and other things that people feel deeply about are what motivates the voters to come out to the polls and stand in the lines. The right understands this and gives their people the red meat of hate and discontent. They fire them up about single issues like the courts or religious freedom. We need a candidate who can express the things people are dealing with and offer them hope for fixing those problems. Hugs

    Liked by 3 people

    • Yes, I’ve read about the Indivisible Pledge, and in fact I even signed it, but if push comes to shove, I’m not sure it has teeth. However, it is encouraging.

      You make an excellent point in saying that our biggest task is to inspire everyone to vote, for those who don’t are as much a part of the problem as the republicans who vote for Trump. Hillary’s platform was more moderate than some democrats might have liked, but it was a good platform, a solid one, and had she been elected, we wouldn’t likely be on the brink of war with Iran today. However, that’s water under the bridge … or over the dam. We do need a candidate who will stand strong in the face of Trump’s childish tantrums and name-calling, a candidate whose platform is one for first, the environment, and second humanitarian causes such as health care, minimum wage increase, more fair tax structure, enhanced civil rights, etc. Sigh. Gonna be a long 18 months. Hugs!!!

      Liked by 1 person

  6. Jill, well said. The Dems must nominate a candidate that can appeal to Independents and Republicans. We are a largely uninformed nation, with too many not watchings news at all and some who do not recognize opinion masked as news. Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh,Tucker Carlson, Rachel Maddow, et al offer biased opinion. If one watches Fox, I would encourage watching Chris Wallace and Shepard Smith, who are far more credible than the opinion people.

    The reason I preface with this is America is not astute enough to elect a Bernie Sanders. The man in the White House will paint him with the word Socialist, which has a negative connotation that must be overcome.

    I don’t want to see another George McGovern or Walter Mondale flame out. The regal-minded Trump is a ciear and present danger to our democracy. We cannot screw around this time. The Dems must put forward a good pair of candidates. And, they must lean in – why are we not doing more about climate change; why are we giving industry more license to pee in our pool; why are trying to kick people off healthcare; why did we increase our debt and deficit to give rich people a tax break and so on? Keith

    Liked by 4 people

    • Thanks Keith. He is, indeed, a clear and present danger for he is both uneducated in the ways of governance and foreign policy, but is also greedy and self-focused, believing that the office of president exists to serve him, when in truth, the office exists to enable him to serve the 330 million people in this nation. Instead, he is scratching the backs of those who have favours to offer him, and doing his best to start a war that would be devastating not only to us, but to the entire world. He really needs to go now, rather than in 18 months, but that isn’t likely to happen. He will denigrate any candidate the democrats choose, but you’re right … he would keep reminding those who do not understand, of Bernie’s socialism, but he will find the Achilles Heel in whomever is the nominee, and will keep pounding it home to his base. We have much work to do in the next year and a half, and I’m not seeing signs of it being done.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Keith, I largely agree with your assessment. However I would take it a step further and recommend everyone take a news break. Do independent research for yourself and not take any news broadcast at face value. Hopefully ppl realize that ALL US news media are owned and operated by billionaires who have an interest in maintaining the status quo. It is not in their best interest to report the truth, all news reporting are distorted disinfo to some degree.
      You’d be surprised how much independent journalism has uncovered about corruption and lies disguised as mainstream network news.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Please don’t do that, David. It is your optimism that helps keep me balanced, that keeps me hoping, keeps me from giving in to complete despair. I need you to keep on those rose-coloured glasses.
      Cwtch

      Liked by 2 people

  7. He certainly can win Jill. And, with the possibility of an indictment waiting for him if he does lose, he will do whatever is necessary to win…including god knows what. A man cornered like a rat will resort to whatever it takes to survive. So, absolutely…Dems must NOT get complacent. And we have to motivate the public to get out and vote. That 40% non-participation is, and should be an embarrassment. We need to overwhelm him with numbers. A complete landslide..electoral and popular vote is the only answer to this nightmare. That way he can have no wiggle room saying it was rigged..or that illegals made him lose. Screw that! No excuses Dems!!

    Liked by 3 people

    • Ah yes, I hadn’t even given much thought to the indictment(s) that will almost certainly be awaiting him. Yes, I think voter apathy is one of the biggest problems, and people who are disgusted with politics need to understand that by not voting, they are a big part of the problem. If you want to make things better, you can’t sit back and ignore it. Sigh. We’ve got our work cut out for us!

      Liked by 3 people

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