He’s cutting taxes … again. No wait … he isn’t cutting taxes! He’s reversing his trade tariffs. No wait … he isn’t doing that, either! Just what the hell is the fool in the Oval Office doing??? Nobody knows, for sure.
Economists have been predicting that the nation will see another recession before the end of 2020. I am not an economist, but nonetheless put my two cents worth in and say I think it will come by the end of 2019, or at least a harbinger of a recession. Trump has seemingly believed that his house of cards would stand at least through November 3rd, 2020 … election day.
Well, last week there were some warning signs. First, Trump’s latest round of tariffs on imports from China sent retailers into a frenzy, with the holiday shopping season on the horizon, and so as the Dow headed south, Trump postponed those tariffs, and the next day all was well once again. Then, the bond market flashed a warning signal, as the spread between the 2-year Treasury note and 10-year bond inverted for the first time in more than a decade. That has historically presaged a recession, and so once again the market turned southward, losing about 3% last Thursday.
Trump to his base, the only people who believe a word he says, claimed that …
“Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed. The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!”
Oh, wouldn’t it be lovely if the “man” actually had a clue about what he is speaking?
He talks of further tax cuts. Our national debt and budget deficits are both already at a historic high … and he wants to cut revenue even more??? Where the heck is the money going to come from to keep the government functioning, to pay Social Security checks and pay the military and pay for food stamps, Medicare/Medicaid, etc., etc., etc.??? How will the United States pay its loans? Has the “man” no sense of how the economy works, how revenue vs expenses work, how a budget works? Yeah, silly question, isn’t it? He has no concept … he thinks you have to have an ID to buy groceries.
But it gets even better (where ‘better’ means ‘worse’ in the alternative universe). Remember back in May 2016, when Trump was hot on the campaign trail and he made this statement …
“People said I want to go and buy debt and default on debt, and I mean, these people are crazy. This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you, OK?”
Oh, my aching head!!! Donnie, Donnie, Donnie … it is NOT that simple! The money that is printed is expected to be backed up with real assets! This is not an effing game of Monopoly but is real world economics!
Printing more money will only exacerbate the problem, yet that is precisely what Trump is proposing to offset the market downturn that he swears doesn’t exist. Or rather, that he believes has been created by his enemy, “the media”.
“The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election. The problem they have is that the economy is way too strong and we will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China!”
People … sigh … the incumbent does not know what he is doing. He does not understand how global markets work. He does not understand how the economy works. He barely understands how to wipe his patootie. To my republican friends: I beg of you, please study this situation, try to understand what your “hero” is doing to not only this nation, but to the world.
Most presidents are not economists. But then, most presidents hire economic advisors who ARE economists, who DO understand how the world of economics and high finance works, and more importantly, they actually LISTEN to those paid advisors. Trump is convinced that his “gut” (and there is certainly enough of it) is smarter than all the advisors that WE THE PEOPLE are paying, and he listens to nobody. Folks … there is a price to be paid for this folly. We will all pay that price. Think about it.
And those same people who called their brokers on Monday, placed yet another call saying, “SELL, SELL, SELL!!!” And thus was born an all new level of volatility in the S&P, the Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, with two-day losses thus far, more than wiping out Monday’s gains and then some. You know those playground things, basically a board on a fulcrum that are called teeter-totters, or see-saws? They go up-down-up-down …
That is what the U.S. economy is on. Market fluctuations based on anticipation of economic or political events are not unusual. However, rarely are they as significant and immediate based on naught more than a word or a tweet from a madman! If … IF Donald Trump were a mentally and emotionally stable leader, one might understand why such a remark would set the wheels in motion for a market tumble. But, given his rarely-coherent state of mind, his lies and reversals, I cannot imagine why anybody would base financial decisions on one of his multitude of daily tweets.
Once again, Trump has made himself, and by extension all of us, a laughingstock. But it goes deeper than that. He is playing a game, the rules of which he is ignorant. And the stakes, for the average person like you and I, are our 401(k)s, our pensions and retirement plans. On an even larger scale, he is playing with the economic well-being of not only the U.S., but global economies as well.
This year, however, almost nobody is likely to have much Christmas spirit or be in the mood to say anything other than “Bah, humbug!” when the word ‘Christmas’ is mentioned, and especially if it is mentioned in conjunction with one Donald Trump. Why? A single word: tariffs.
And just in time for Christmas, too! Doesn’t it feel great to be able to say “Merry Christmas” again? But … how will you explain to the children that no, they cannot have a new bike this year, or even a new pair of shoes, but how about some nice socks? The bike will cost 20% more, but that isn’t even the problem, for you simply won’t have any money after you’ve paid more for food, cleaning supplies and medicine, not to mention the price increases at the pump … OY VEY!
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce released a report in July trying to hit home just how much every state is affected by retaliatory tariffs from China, the EU, Mexico, and Canada. Several of the hardest-hit areas are in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, the group said. “The administration is threatening to undermine the economic progress it worked so hard to achieve,” President and CEO Tom Donohue said in a statement.
Senator Orrin Hatch’s Finance Committee is working on legislation to rein Trump in. Separately, Senators Bob Corker and Pat Toomey are still plotting what some have called a “hand grenade” amendment to stop Trump’s offensive. Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts said that the committee has met with the president about this issue. But Trump is “a protectionist who has his policy wrapped around the rear axle of a pickup. And it’s hard to get out.”
Those of you who saw a bit of an increase in your weekly pay after the December donor tax cuts went into effect … do you think all these price increases on everything from toothpaste, soap, laundry detergent, and paper towels to bikes, cars, and camping equipment will be offset by that tax increase? Seriously?
I don’t find it particularly funny, but neither do I find it worthy of top billing in an email.
Need I say more? Hopefully this perfidy will only serve to increase Kim’s lead.
I am disturbed, however, by the fact that they have not yet been allowed to see their parents. It seems unnecessarily cruel to both the children and the parents, and the parents do not even know which boys have been rescued and which remain in the cave. Psychologists already anticipate that the boys are likely to suffer from short-term psychological symptoms. I am not a psychologist, but just from the standpoint of a human and a parent, it seems that the most important thing at this point would be reuniting the boys with their parents, letting them feel secure in the embrace of their moms and dads. But what do I know, right?
Does anybody else feel ill? You may notice that he didn’t even mention any of the scandals surrounding him? Happily, the 14 or so investigations of ethics violations will continue and he remains under the gun. If it is found that he is guilty of ethics violations, it will be up to Attorney General Jeff Sessions to decide whether to prosecute. Anybody want to guess how that is likely to go?
In requesting the move and the delay, Manafort’s attorneys cited intense negative publicity surrounding his prosecution by special counsel Robert Mueller. Yes, well??? You play, you pay … eventually. I am ready for somebody … anybody … to start facing the consequences of this huge criminal scandal that handed the 2016 election to the least qualified candidate imaginable. I suspect that once the first one falls, the rest will follow. We may need to build a new federal penitentiary to hold them all! Frankly, I will be doing the Snoopy Happy Dance in the middle of the street!
The G7 summit, a meeting of the leaders of the world’s seven largest advanced economies, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, is scheduled to start next Friday, June 8th, in Quebec, Canada. With just a short five days left, one would think that the agenda would be set, yes? Well, it is not. Not even close. I will give you only one guess as to the reason the summit plans remain in chaos. Think hard, now …
You got it! None other than Donald John Trump, the one who notoriously acted as a stubborn, unsupervised toddler at last year’s G7 in Taormina, Italy, when after three days of meetings and countless discussions, he refused to reaffirm the U.S.’ commitment to cutting greenhouse-gas emissions. In addition, he scolded Germany for its trade practices and lectured NATO members, saying they don’t pay their fair share. But this year is even worse … apparently he has single-handedly blown up the entire agenda!
The purpose of the G7 summit is to serve as a forum for highly industrialized democracies to coordinate economic, security, and energy policy. It is a venue where ideas are exchanged and problems discussed. It is a venue for global cooperation, not for one player to bully all the rest. These seven leaders are on equal footing … they are each elected leaders of their nations and their interest is in global cooperation to help make the world a more prosperous, safer place. When one player comes to the table believing that he is somehow superior to the rest, believing that he, somehow is the leader of the group, then nothing good can come out of it.
Those of you who have a toddler in the house, let me ask you a question: Do you allow your toddler to iron the laundry? No, of course you don’t for he/she would likely get the creases crooked in the pants, and then what would you look like in that next business meeting? Do you allow your toddler to load the dishes into the dishwasher? Why no, silly, for half would be turned the wrong way and never get clean! And would you allow your toddler to cook your supper? Heh heh heh … only if you like your food to come on a stick! There are good reasons that you don’t have your little one iron, clean, or cook, and the main one of those reasons is that he has no idea what he is doing when it comes to those things. Well, guess what? The ‘man’ sitting on his oversized patootie in the Oval Office is no better than your toddler in that he has no clue what he is doing.
I can tell you what he is doing … he is destroying. He is on a course to destroy the environment, society, and most recently, the economy. Yes, that economy that he has wrongfully taken credit for, that economy that he inherited from the previous administration, that economy that has been, all things considered, pretty darned good. But, not satisfied with that, he has now begun a trade war, not with our enemies … oh no, to our enemies he is most generous … but he is determined to go to war with our friends!!!
Trump has been playing some game that only he understands, threatening the tariffs, then promising exemptions, then threatening again. But alas, yesterday he decided the tariffs would go into effect at midnight last night. If any of you republicans think this is a cheer-worthy move, think again. This was a foolish, foolish move for two major reasons.
The second reason this is a fool’s errand, of course, is that it is a move almost certain to create economic instability both in the U.S. and across the globe. Remember that extra $5 – $6 dollars the ‘tax cut’ bill gained you on your paycheck? You will soon be spending all of that and more just to buy the same amount of food and other goods that you bought a year ago. Prices will rise, and when some cannot afford the higher prices, buying will slow, and when buying slows, manufacturers will cut jobs. That, of course, is an over-simplified explanation, but you get the idea.
Filosofa's Word 